Diss . ETH No . 19332 Evaluation of Investments in Multi - Carrier Energy Systems under Uncertainty A dissertation submitted

When evaluating investments in energy supply and generation infrastructure nowadays, one is confronted with multiple sources of uncertainty. Examples for such uncertainties are the liberalization of power markets, regulatory uncertainties regarding CO2 pricing mechanisms or the level of feed-in tariffs for renewable energies, and the volatility of fuel prices. The objective of this thesis is to provide methods that allow for an adequate consideration of uncertainties in the investment evaluation while taking into account the potential benefits from investments involving multiple energy carriers. The consideration of multiple energy carriers is one of the key aspects of the project ”Vision of Future Energy Networks” at ETH Zurich. By regarding different energy infrastructures, e.g. electricity, natural gas and district heating networks, as integrated energy system, the project aims at identifying hidden synergies and at revealing beneficial interactions and conversion possibilities between different energy carriers. In this thesis, methods from financial economics and financial engineering are applied and adopted in order to evaluate investments in multicarrier energy systems under uncertainty. This is done from two different points of view. First, assuming a societal perspective, the analysis focusses on finding a portfolio of technologies which provides a certain service area with all required energy carriers in an optimal way. For this problem, mean-variance portfolio theory is applied and extended with a scenario-based analysis of multi-energy portfolios. In the second part of the thesis, it is assumed that an individual investor evaluates a particular investment project consisting of assets for the generation and possibly storage of multiple energy carriers. In this case a profitmaximizing perspective is adopted. Applying a Monte Carlo method,